Game Plan 4.5.2026
Big Picture Ideas
Game Plan: Big Picture Ideas
Index: Day Uptrend in countertrend against both Month and Week Downtrends. Monitor if market bid can hold > Thursdays low, and step up to test WH[1]. Above WH[1], opens door for more upside. Below WH[1], downside potential to Thursday’s low, and if holding < Thursday’s low to ML[1] & below if Month Downtrends persist
Crypto:
Bitcoin —> 2 month consolidation / chop. No mans land between 74605 YL[1] & 60205 QL[1]. Below 60205 QL[1], looking for a flush of 50k to wash out some longs before any interest. Above 74605 YL[1], minor R at 76200 DH[1], which opens door to trade back to 98-100k over time.
Ethereum —> same 2 month chop between 1750 & 2400, March month inside Feb month. Downside target 1387 YL[1] if consolidation breaks down. Holds > 2390 MH[1] opens door for 2600, 3000, & 3418.5 QL[1]. Nothing to do while inside range.
Currencies: $DXY key inflection QH[1] 100.643. Above here upside, below downside.
Fixed Income: Multi year consolidation across the curve after 2022 up move in rates. Could be basing for a move higher in bonds (lower rates) OR consolidating for another move lower in bonds (higher rates). No interest here until resolution of the multi-year consolidation.
Commodities:
GC multi-year month uptrend starting in 2024, put in a blowoff top early in 2026. Above 4584 YH[1], potential to trade back to all time highs. Below 4584 YH[1], potential to trade back to
CL experiencing a similar move as GC/SI earlier this year. Amount of upside can surprise. Starts getting juicy > 130. Remember not to get caught on front side of the move. Front side shorts blowing out = first sign a potential short trade is setting up. Will provide good short opps when time is right (not an easy trade, be patient). And if it doesn’t setup in way that makes sense to you, stay away. Zero PnL always > negative PnL.
Reminders:
Is this Setup A- quality or better?
Where can I risk 1R to make 2R+?
What did I do well last week? / What did I learn?
Currently working on only trading A- Setups and better. Less trades, more focus on edge development. Overtrading will burn you out, and waste time experiencing subpar setups / trades/
What to focus on next week?
Is this Setup A- quality or better? / Where can I risk 1R to make 2R+?
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Disclaimer: This article contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of the author. Any information provided may not be relied on as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice.